Large Homes Sold for 104.5% of Asking. Small Homes Got Exactly 100%.
- Scarce supply favors sellers. At the current pace, every home for sale right now would be gone in 1.9 months, well below the 4-month line where sellers lose their edge.
- Size and bedrooms change the math. The typical small home sold for exactly what it asked, while the typical large home sold for 4.5 percentage points more.
- Knowing your tier tells you how hard to push. These three groups behaved very differently, and 55 homes in the smallest tier gave up with no sale.
I pulled every listing that closed through September 25, 2026, then sorted them into three tiers by size. Small homes under 1,500 square feet. Mid-size homes from 1,500 to 2,500 square feet. Large homes from 2,500 to 3,500 square feet. Each tier told a different story.
Small homes: steady, not spectacular
401 small homes sold. The typical one closed at $360,000, which was exactly 100% of what the seller last asked. Not a dollar more, not a dollar less.
That sounds good, and it is. But 55 small homes gave up and came off the market with no sale. That is more than any other tier. If you price a small home even a little high, buyers in this tier will wait you out.
Mid-size homes: where buyers compete
219 mid-size homes sold. The typical one closed at $881,000, which was 102.5% of what the seller last asked. Buyers paid above the ask.
Only 19 homes in this tier gave up without selling. That is the lowest count of any group. There are simply not enough mid-size homes to go around. Sellers in this tier had the most room to price with confidence.
Large homes: the biggest premiums
82 large homes sold. The typical one closed at $1,243,000, which was 104.5% of what the seller last asked. Buyers paid well above asking.
Only 9 large homes gave up. There are very few of them and buyers know it. The 1.9-month supply number is a market-wide figure, but for large homes the squeeze is even tighter.
| Small | Mid-size | Large | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical sold price | $360,000 | $881,000 | $1,243,000 |
| Sold vs. last asking price | 100% | 102.5% | 104.5% |
| Homes that gave up | 55 | 19 | 9 |
| Homes that sold | 401 | 219 | 82 |
Do this, not that
- Do price a small home at exactly what the market supports, not a dollar above. 55 small homes gave up with no sale, the most of any tier.
- Do price a mid-size home with confidence. The typical mid-size home sold for 102.5% of its asking price and only 19 gave up.
- Do expect multiple offers on a large home. The typical large home closed at 104.5% of asking, meaning buyers came in over the ask.
- Do not assume the overall 1.9-month supply number applies to your home. Each tier behaves differently, and your size bracket tells the real story.
The most common mistake: treating all homes the same
The whole market looks strong at 1.9 months of supply. The typical home across all 730 sales closed at 101.2% of its asking price. Those numbers make it easy to think every home will sail.
But 97 homes across the whole market gave up and came off with no sale. In the small-home tier alone, 55 came off the market with no sale. The gap between 100% and 104.5% of asking price is real money, and it belongs to a different tier, not to every seller.
A seller who prices a small home like a large one does not get the large-home premium. They get a longer wait, a price drop, or no sale at all.
What this means for you right now
If you are selling, find your tier first, then set your price. A mid-size or large home has real room to price at or above asking. A small home needs a sharper number to avoid joining the 55 that gave up. The overall supply is tight, but tight supply only helps you if your price lands in the right place for your size.
If you are buying, know that rates are working against you right now. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. Nationally, existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026 to a pace of 3.98 million, with the national supply reaching 4.9 months, its highest in over ten years, according to the National Association of Realtors. Here, supply sits at just 1.9 months. In a market with only 133 homes for sale, you have little room to wait for a better rate and still find a home. Knowing which tier you can afford, and what buyers in that tier are actually paying, gives you a clearer target than the overall number does.
Your next step
(845) 661-3469Text me your address and I will send back what your home is worth against what homes in your size tier actually sold for, right here through September 25, 2026. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me- My market data, every listing, as of September 25, 2026
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, September 24, 2026
- National Association of Realtors, August 2026 existing-home sales report
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2026 employment situation